September 18 – A recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted by Selzer & Co. reveals a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with Trump leading Harris by 47% to 43%. This result is within the margin of error, indicating a highly competitive contest in a state where Trump has previously dominated.
The Selzer poll, renowned for its accuracy, was conducted last week before the reported assassination attempt on Trump. Its findings are significant as they suggest a tighter race in Iowa compared to previous polls. The poll’s track record includes a notably accurate prediction of Trump’s 7-point lead in Iowa in 2020, a stark contrast to other surveys that had indicated a more comfortable position for Trump.
While Iowa may not be pivotal in the November election, the close margin is encouraging for Harris, reflecting a potential shift in voter sentiment. The poll’s accuracy is underscored by its previous performance in 2016, where it correctly predicted Trump’s win in Iowa despite other polls showing a more favorable position for Hillary Clinton.
The positive news from Iowa is echoed by recent polling in neighboring Wisconsin, another crucial battleground state. A Marquette University Law School poll shows Harris leading Trump by 52% to 48%, and an average of polls from Marquette, CBS News/YouGov, and CNN/SSRS indicates a 4-point lead for Harris. This margin, though narrow, is significant compared to Biden’s slim 0.6-point win in 2020 and Clinton’s overestimated lead in 2016.
A victory for Harris in Wisconsin would bolster her chances in the 2024 race, potentially increasing her odds of winning to around 75% if she secures the state’s 10 electoral votes. However, this scenario is far from guaranteed, and Harris would still need to win at least two additional battleground states to secure the presidency.
The Selzer poll’s results provide a glimmer of optimism for the Harris campaign, especially given the historical context of polling inaccuracies in recent elections. Despite the potential for change and the possibility that the Selzer poll could be an outlier, the current data suggests a more favorable outlook for Harris than earlier polls indicated.
Correction: This story has been updated to accurately reflect that polling in 2016 overestimated Hillary Clinton’s margin in Wisconsin.
