As post-election analysis continues on the 2024 presidential race, experts are noting that polling once again underestimated the level of support for President-elect Donald Trump. Despite efforts to improve polling accuracy following the 2016 and 2020 elections, pre-election surveys still missed the mark by a few percentage points.
In swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, pre-election polls suggested a tightly contested race, often within a margin of error. However, Trump’s final victories in all seven battleground states came as a surprise to many, as the polling averages had consistently understated his support by 2 to 3 percentage points.
NBC News compared Trump’s support in “likely voter” polls conducted in October and November to the actual election results, showing a similar pattern to previous elections, where Trump’s support was underreported. The polls in 2024 were more accurate than in 2020, with a gap of 2.4 percentage points compared to a 3.3-point underestimation in 2020.
The gap was evident in both solid Democratic states like New York, where the polls were off by 4.6 points, and solid Republican states like Wyoming, where the discrepancy was 5.8 points. In swing states, the polls in Nevada were off by 2.9 points, highlighting the consistent difficulty pollsters face in accurately capturing Trump’s voter base.
While some polls predicted a close race in these key battlegrounds, the eventual Trump sweep of all seven states led to surprise results, underscoring the ongoing challenge of polling accuracy in today’s politically divided climate.
