A recent poll released on Monday morning indicates that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is gaining substantial support among Iowa Republicans, tying for second place in the race for the GOP nomination in the Hawkeye State.
Nonetheless, despite her surge, Haley’s path to securing the Republican nomination remains unclear, primarily due to the enduring dominance of former President Donald Trump in both state and national polls. According to the Des Moines Register/NBC/Mediacom survey, conducted by seasoned pollster J. Ann Selzer, Trump remains the first choice of 43% of Iowa Republicans, the majority of whom assert that their decisions are firm.
Haley now enjoys the support of 16% of Iowa Republicans, a figure equivalent to that of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was formerly Trump’s closest competitor before encountering setbacks this fall. This marks a substantial increase for Haley compared to the same poll conducted in August, where she garnered just 6%.
Haley’s rise in Iowa mirrors her growing support in New Hampshire, where a recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today poll placed her in second place with 19% support, surpassing DeSantis, who secured 10% support but trailing significantly behind Trump, who enjoyed the backing of 49% of New Hampshire Republican primary voters.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who saw a temporary boost in polls following a spirited debate appearance, secured 4% support, tying with former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, one of Trump’s most vocal primary critics. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum received 3% support, former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson had 1% support, and businessman Ryan Binkley registered negligible support, effectively amounting to zero, according to the poll.
It’s worth noting that this poll was conducted prior to the withdrawal of Trump’s former vice president, Mike Pence, from the race on Saturday, as he stated, “this is not my time.” J. Ann Selzer, the pollster, realigned the rankings to distribute Pence’s supporters among other candidates.
Even before this realignment, Pence’s support had been dwindling, dropping from 6% in August to just 2% in the current poll.
This Iowa poll reflects a new political landscape for the upcoming 2024 elections, with both major political parties’ nominations seemingly solidified with two and a half months remaining before the first nominating contest.
Multiple polls have indicated that the American public is uninterested in a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden from the 2020 election. However, neither candidate faces significant competition for their respective nominations.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an early primary challenger to Biden, abandoned his independent campaign after controversial comments about Jews and anti-vaccine rhetoric led to a decline in support among Democrats.
Additionally, Democratic Representative Dean Phillips, a moderate lawmaker from Minnesota, has recently launched a last-minute bid for the Democratic nomination, though the effort appears to face formidable obstacles.
Given his limited national recognition and the short timeframe before the primaries commence, Phillips’ quest is an uphill battle, particularly considering historical precedent, as the last time a sitting House member was elected president was in 1880 when James Garfield assumed office.
In an unusual twist, Trump, while challenging for the Republican nomination, effectively functions as an incumbent. Despite facing legal challenges that necessitate a balancing act between campaign appearances and court proceedings, the former president maintains a significant lead over other GOP candidates in both national and state polls.
Trump’s support in the recent poll is nearly unchanged from August, when he garnered 42% support among GOP caucus-goers. As the Iowa Republican caucuses approach on January 15, it seems Trump faces no imminent threat, with 63% of his supporters in Iowa asserting unwavering commitment, according to the Register’s survey.
While Haley and DeSantis may be vying for second place, they both occupy tenuous ground compared to the formidable support that Donald Trump enjoys, as noted by J. Ann Selzer in her remarks to the Des Moines Register.
