In the corridors of power on Capitol Hill, there is a growing apprehension that any attempt to replace Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could be stacked against populist or outsider candidates, according to insiders interviewed by The Daily Caller.
Recent incidents involving McConnell have sparked discussions about his leadership. In July, during a press conference on Capitol Hill, McConnell appeared to freeze up and had to be escorted away by fellow Senate Republicans. A similar incident occurred in August during a press conference in Kentucky. However, McConnell has since been cleared of any serious health issues by Capitol’s attending physician, Dr. Brian Monahan, who ruled out conditions like a stroke, seizure disorder, or signs of Parkinson’s disease.
Despite these incidents, McConnell, who has held his Senate seat since 1985, has reiterated his commitment to serving as the minority leader and completing his Senate term.
The Daily Caller conducted interviews with Senate staffers, both current and former, regarding the potential replacement of McConnell. To protect their anonymity on this sensitive topic, the staffers were granted anonymity.
One former Senate aide commented, “It’s almost impossible for an outsider to win leadership races these days with how much money is controlled by the party leaders on all sides, but the issue is particularly acute with McConnell in the Senate.” The former aide pointed out that McConnell wields considerable financial influence, controlling approximately half a billion dollars in campaign funds each cycle.
The same source continued, “So if you want to get elected to the Senate, the majority of the money to run for Senate is controlled exclusively by Mitch McConnell. Rick Scott already did challenge him. I don’t know if he’s currently running, but he did run against him. He put his reputation on the line. I don’t know if the pain was so severe, that he would decline to do so again, but I can tell you there’s not even going to be much of a race. It’s going to be John Thune,” referring to South Dakota Sen. John Thune.
Another current Senate aide shared a similar sentiment, stating, “It’s going to be one of the Johns. The process is essentially rigged, where an outsider could not emerge with enough votes. Even if someone did try to challenge the establishment, it would be impossible for that person to win. McConnell has too much money behind him. It will either be Thune or Cornyn, but most likely Thune,” referring to Sen. John Cornyn of Texas.
As of now, no Republicans have publicly declared their intention to challenge McConnell as Minority Leader if he decides to step down. The lone voice of dissent within the Senate Republican ranks has been Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, who has expressed concerns about McConnell’s leadership capabilities. Hawley is facing re-election in 2024.
A different current Senate aide emphasized the predictability of the leadership fight’s outcome, saying, “If you’re concerned about conservative policy, and Senate leadership delivering policy wins, a change at the top isn’t going to necessarily deliver that. The outcome of a leadership fight has been essentially baked for years—either Thune or Cornyn will almost certainly take the helm. Barrasso would be a solid replacement, as a good conservative vote on a lot of issues, but likely another Senator would win out,” referring to Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming.
The speculation also touched upon the preferences of McConnell’s inner circle, with one former Senate aide stating, “It’s Thune or Cornyn. I think McConnell world prefers Thune but Cornyn is a better fundraiser and legislator so I wouldn’t count him out.”
However, the overall consensus among those interviewed is that the rules surrounding leadership changes are stacked in McConnell’s favor. “Someone might but the rules are rigged. If it was a plurality vote, someone might do it and could win but at some point it will be a head to head vote and McConnell will make sure he has the votes to get whatever moderate he can get,” the former aide added.
The Daily Caller reached out to McConnell’s office for comment on the possibility of his replacement as Minority Leader, and they referred to his previous statements in which he affirmed, “I’m going to finish my term as leader, and I’m going to finish my Senate term.”
